MLBeat

Fantasy baseball's greatest weakness thus far is its ephemeral nature. More so than the real games themselves, fantasy baseball's results are instantly forgotten and even poorly archived online to boot. Some may remember who won and lost, but nobody remembers the pivotal trades, the astute waiver-wire pickups, the team that won it all back in '99 solely on stolen bases and middle relievers.

I have a vague memory of trading Cliff Floyd for Eric Milton at midseason in a league full of strangers several years ago. Everyone mocked and jeered my newbie move as Floyd had been an MVP thus far and Milton was completely unproven at the time, but sure enough the former injured himself and the latter helped me come from behind to tie the first-place team on the season's final day. But other than that, I can't recall a single other memorable trade I've made over the years, which is sad considering the time and thought I poured into them (not to mention the ones that didn't even get accepted).

Okay, last May I did trade Jonny Gomes for Felix Hernandez and Justin Morneau in a keeper league. Better yet, the numbers at the time were such that nobody even questioned the deal. That one was, and continues to be, memorable....

I harbor few illusions that a complete stranger's fantasy baseball travails can be of any interest but himself, but because MLBeat serves at least in part as a repository of hidden details I may want to be able to recall someday, here's a message I posted to my league's board last night, an hour after the trade deadline had passed. Yahoo--for all its perks--doesn't keep a record of these, so if I don't post it here, it could be lost forever.

Backstory: this is the first year of It's a League Game Smokey, at least in its current 16-team five-keeper format. It's head-to-head, 6x6 (OPS and losses), comes with a pittance of a $30 buy-in that gets pooled to the top three finishers, and it's joyously combative, combining proud and grizzled veterans with eager first-timers and everywhere in between. I'm the league's commissioner and loving caretaker, and if I may fan my feathers ever so slightly, it's far and away the best fantasy league experience I've ever enjoyed.

One note that though it doesn't fit, I cannot omit: despite the overall high level of activity there has been one wild aberration: Funky Cold Madina sits in third place, virtually assured of a place in the coveted playoffs here in the final week of the regular season, despite:
1) not knowing anything about baseball,
2) managing an autodrafted team,
3) making a total of two roster moves, both to drop injured or worthless players, and
4) only logging in once since June.

And that login was solely to post a trash-talking message to the dozen deeply embarrassed managers behind him in the standings. That this was the only dead team in the league puts the whole enterprise into a certain absurd perspective, no?



So that’s a wrap on all the trading activity for the ‘07 season. Well done, noble participants: twenty trades and not a single league-ruiner. And at least in my case, plenty of heated negotiation right up to the deadline, although in the end Akira was unable to consummate his lust for Brandon Webb.

League sluts were Mofos on a Diamond and DurrrtySouth Mudcats with 6 trades apiece.
League prudes were Agents of Fortune, Train Wreck, Smiley Mets Fan and (of course) funky cold madina with 0 trades each. (Which is fine, but how about at least *replying* to my offers, eh guys?)

Just in case folks were hoping for an authoritative final word on the year’s deals...well, don’t mind if I do:

4/17 -- the long shot trades Todd Jones to Lickin’ Cactus for Rich Harden
Jones hasn’t been perfect, but he’s been the closer all year. Harden barely even took the field.
Winner: Lickin’ Cactus

4/28 -- Mofos on a Diamond trades Adam Dunn, Jason Frasor to Otis Nixon Overdrive for Lance Berkman, Mike MacDougal
Neither Frasor nor MacDougal amounted to much of anything, so it’s Dunn vs. Berkman, and Dunn has simply had a better year. Next year, who knows.
Winner: Otis Nixon Overdrive

4/28 -- the long shot trades Phil Hughes to Mofos on a Diamond for Al Reyes
Hughes hurt himself immediately following this but is now back and looks to help Akira out down the stretch. Reyes only has ten saves since this trade and two in the last two months.
Winner: Mofos on a Diamond

5/6 -- El Kabong trades Corey Patterson, Jake Peavy to The Pimply Backs for Garrett Atkins, Mark Teahen
This trade “coincided” with Jay starting to run away with the regular season. Peavy’s been better than the other three players put together, although Atkins has finally come around. Patterson has too, but Jay gets no credit for that since he’s doing it for Satter instead.
Winner: The Pimply Backs

5/10 -- Chrum trades Frank Thomas to The Pimply Backs for Andy Pettitte
Thomas has hit 16 of his 21 HR since the trade, and Pettitte has gone 9-5.
Winner: Push

5/17 -- DurrtySouth Mudcats trades Paul Konerko, Aaron Harang to Teen Girl Squad for Adrian Gonzalez
Konerko has hit 21 of his 26 HR since the trade, while Gonzalez has only hit 13 of his 23 (thanks to four in the past week). And then there’s the Harang part: 8-2, 3.32 ERA, 113 K in 120 IP since that date. Yeah, I’d probably be in 10th-12th place if not for this trade.
Winner: Teen Girl Squad

5/31 -- the long shot trades Yovanni Gallardo to Mofos on a Diamond for Melvin Mora
Mora has been, how shall I say, thoroughly nondescript. Gallardo was a major boost to Akira’s starting staff for awhile, though he’s hit a bit of a wall recently.
Winner: Mofos on a Diamond

6/14 -- Mofos on a Diamond trades Kenny Lofton, Brad Hennessey to The Pimply Backs for Javier Vazquez
Vazquez went on a 8-2 tear after this trade - he’s had a very solid year. Lofton’s only stolen six bases since the trade, and four of them were in the same game. Hennessey’s been decent in relief but hardly gets any saves because the Giants suck. This trade hasn’t killed Jay or anything, but I’ll give a slight edge to Akira on this one since it helped vault him into second place.
Winner: Mofos on a Diamond

6/18 -- Teen Girl Squad trades Stephen Drew, Mike Cameron, Eric Gagne to Tieagles for Miguel Tejada, Moises Alou
Miggy broke his wrist and missed over a month right after I acquired him, but now he and Alou are both back and looking strong. I was unlucky in that respect, but lucky enough to trade Cameron at the tail end of one of his patented hot streaks. Gagne was great as a closer but the trade to Boston killed his value. Drew has been flat-out worthless, much to my (and Nathan’s) disappointment.
Winner: Teen Girl Squad

6/19 -- DurrtySouth Mudcats trades Jack Cust, Tim Lincecum, Chad Billingsley, Jason Schmidt to Tieagles for Torii Hunter
Tough to evaluate since Hunter and Billingsley got traded again, but this was a good haul for Nathan even though Schmidt went down for the year about 45 seconds after the trade was accepted. Cust is actually looking like a borderline potential keeper, which none of us thought at the time of the trade. And Lincecum is the balls.
Winner: Tieagles

6/22 -- T’Bags trades Vladimir Guerrero to DurrtySouth Mudcats for Torii Hunter, Joe Mauer
Unless Mauer is hitting .360 he’s going to be overrated because he doesn’t hit any homers or steal any bases. And I’d take Vlad over Torii any day.
Winner: DurrtySouthMudcats

6/25 -- DurrtySouth Mudcats trades Andruw Jones to Tieagles for Robinson Cano, Chad Billingsley
Andruw’s playing hurt for maybe the first time in his career. He has shown occasional signs of getting his shit together, but not enough to be worth giving up as promising a keeper as Billingsley.
Winner: DurrrtySouthMudcats

6/27 -- Otis Nixon Overdrive trades J.J. Hardy to Lickin’ Cactus for Brad Penny
Satter was trading from strength to land a hitter, and now that Hardy is heating up again he probably is what Satter needs more going down the stretch. But still, he sucked pretty hard for the end of June and all of July, and Penny continues to pitch like an ace and remains the better keeper of the two.
Winner: Otis Nixon Overdrive

7/8 -- The Pimply Backs trades Jim Thome to the long shot for Tim Hudson
Thome put up a .970 OPS in July and is up to 20 HR after missing time early. But Hudson has gone 7-1 since the trade and has been cruising. Both sides won this one.
Winner: Push

7/10 -- El Kabong trades Chase Utley, Ryan Dempster to Mofos on a Diamond for Ryan Braun, Howie Kendrick, Jeremy Accardo
I initially favored Akira’s side of this blockbuster, but of course Utley immediately broke his hand and the outlook is uncertain for the rest of his season. Braun has continued his tear and is going to be a valuable keeper in his own right. (I’d still take Utley over Braun for ‘08, but that’s neither here nor there.) Also Accardo > Dempster, and Kendrick > nothing. Even if Utley hadn’t gone down, Wade would still have done pretty well for himself here.
Winner: El Kabong

8/1 -- Teen Girl Squad trades Delmon Young to DurrtySouth Mudcats for Chien-Ming Wang, Chris Capuano
At this point Delmon had more value to a team more focused on next year and beyond. It’s turned into a disappointing year for a so-called future superstar, and I haven’t missed him at all as Alou was ready to step in for him by now. Wang has been as advertised, but Capuano didn’t pull out of his tailspin like I’d hoped (though his K/BB ratios are still great, strangely enough). I actually dropped him without ever starting him.
Winner: Push

8/5 -- the long shot trades Travis Hafner to DurrtySouth Mudcats for C.C. Sabathia, Robinson Cano, Gary Matthews Jr.
This was when Jeremy still had a, uh, long shot to make the playoffs. A decent haul for a guy playing on one knee, I’d say. But Banjo is playing for next year and Pronk is a gamble worth taking in that respect. Not to mention that Pronk and Banjo sound like two people who should be together at all times. Seriously, I think Banjo needs Pronk, and Pronk needs Banjo. (No disrespect to Cowbell.) I’ll give the edge to the guy who definitely helped himself in ‘07 though.
Winner: the long shot

8/7 -- Mofos on a Diamond trades Michael Cuddyer, Fausto Carmona to Chrum for David Ortiz
Ortiz is banged up too, but apparently so hopped up on painkillers that he still can hit homers without too much problem. Either way he’s the most valuable keeper of the bunch. Carmona still looks ace-like and Chrum was trading from strength (OPS) to land a good pitcher, but he’s having to roll the dice that Giambi can fill Ortiz’s shoes over the next few weeks.
Winner: Mofos on a Diamond

8/14 -- Tieagles trades Mike Piazza, Adam Wainwright to The Mooninites for Justin Upton
Both teams got what they needed here - Joey a solid catcher and resurgent SP for the playoffs, and Nathan one of the most coveted keepers in the game.
Winner: Push

8/23 -- Tieagles trades Jack Cust, Orlando Hernandez to The Pimply Backs for B.J. Upton
One person I discussed this with called it a panic trade for Jay, who may have lost Cole Hamels to the elbow monster last week. I wanted to agree with him -- it’s true that B.J. is an excellent keeper who will stay 2B eligible next year -- but I can’t agree until first I see El Duque show his age and lose a game or two. And Cust sure isn’t looking like a flash in the pan this deep into the season. Jay may have dealt a blow to his chances in ‘08 but he helped himself in the meantime. The bad news is that I don’t think I’m mentally ready to deal with the possibility of Nathan’s team being competitive next year.
Winner: Push

Labels: fantasy baseball, time capsule

Even though I was fortunate enough to attend last week, there's just not as much to say about the Home Run Derby as I'd hoped. The derby itself is fun to watch naturally, if you can stomach the pre-packaged Product Placementalooza that tends to accompany hype-driven events like this. (Even more grating than product advertisements, which we expect and understand by now, are what I'll call the Personality Placements. At one point between rounds there was an interview of Cal Ripken given by Jon Miller and broadcast over the PA system; Ripken has no connection to San Francisco or to the Home Run Derby, Miller had no real questions to ask that would hint at why Ripken needed to be interviewed, and Ripken had nothing interesting to say whatsoever. Naturally this elicited one of the biggest ovations of the night, and I honestly cannot say why. I actually felt myself stifling a gag reflex.)

In the end this year's edition will be more remembered for a weak final round (Alex Rios only mustered two pokes in his last go, leaving Vlad the Impaler with not much chance for dramatics), a complete lack of balls hit into McCovey Cove (never has a bigger fuss been made over the possibility of hitting a ball into a body of water), and the fact that Barry Bonds could have given us the best Derby storyline of all time by joining in the festivities...but chose not to. All of which is to say, this Derby isn't going to be remembered at all.

So in lieu of that, allow me to veer into the minutiae of fantasy baseball for a moment. Despite my ongoing and even deepening fantasy baseball love affair I've shied away from discussion of it in any forms. It's a conversation-killer, a business to be conducted privately through email and the written word rather than over lunch as three of your female coworkers roll their eyes in boredom.

That said, fantasy baseball rules my life regardless and thus the All-Star Break is an unwelcome interruption to my daily fix of box scores. This was the case last year too, when I got to fiddling around with Yahoo's Head-to-Head Stats page and bemoaned the fate of my underachieving team, The Oddibe McDowells. Anyone familiar with head-to-head fantasy baseball knows the pain of putting up a solid week of production, only to be overwhelmed by a team having the best week of its life and limp out with a 10-2 defeat. In this case, I realized that if our league had been of the roto variety I would have been leading the league in OPS, but instead I had gone only 6-8-0 in that category head-to-head.

Seemed pretty unfair, right? Well, it turns out I am the type who will go the extra mile when it comes to making excuses for lackluster performance, so within a couple hours I had devised the Lucky Bastard Factor and calculated it for each team in each of my three head-to-head Yahoo leagues. The LBF is not a remotely rigorous stat to be held up against the likes of VORP or WXRL, but it can be a fun little toy to kill some time during the All-Star Break doldrums.

Here's how it works: The Oddibe McDowells were #1 in overall OPS but only went 6-8-0 in that category, the seventh best such record in the league. (1) - (7) = -6, or an unlucky bastard in OPS. Conversely, a team that manages the fifth-best record in stolen bases despite putting up the tenth-highest SB total will be (10) - (5) = 5, or a lucky bastard in stolen bases. Add all the categories of your league together and you have the team's total LBF. In the case of ties always round up, so if four teams tied for fifth at 7-5-2 than they all get credit for fifth. This will make the numbers skew positive a bit in what would otherwise probably be a zero-sum game. Exact totals and ranges will vary according to the specific type of league (# of teams, # of categories), but usually the fickle nature of a head-to-head schedule will leave you with a pretty decent snapshot of some luck and unlucky teams.

Your team's LBF says less about the performance of your team per se than it does the variance in the competition you've faced. If you've played right to your expected spot in the standings based on your theoretical rotisserie score, your LBF will be zero. If your LBF is in the negatives, then you can expect your head-to-head record to improve in the second half without making any changes (assuming constant production from your players, naturally a big if). But should your LBF be particularly high -- and this doesn't always correlate with the teams in the top half of the W-L standings either -- then you've been overachieving and should probably make some moves or at least conjure up some improvement from somewhere, lest you risk dropping off.

As it happened, the Oddibes had the lowest LBF in the league at the break: -14 in a twelve-team, twelve-category league. And aside from landing Brett Myers in a fortunate steal of a trade, there were no wholesale changes or panic moves required to lift the Oddibes from tenth place to a lofty third by season's end. I'm just sayin'....

Labels: fantasy baseball, stats

Pitching matchup of the week is tonight. So dubbed because it potentially decides my fantasy matchup this week vs. the Pimply Backs, with wins, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP all still in play. The classic bittersweet fantasy dilemma of owning two pitchers who are starting against each other is in effect. This is written in real time as we go. I'm coming in during the second inning.

Between opening up my laptop, learning of the 1-0 score and booting up the MLB.tv browser, it's already become 2-0 and the first thing I see is Cabrera nailing a batter in the asscheek. With Cabrera's two earlier stellar starts to begin the season, this is precisely what we hoped we'd never see again from the promising young pitcher, although we knew the other shoe was bound to drop sooner or later. "Someone's gonna have to come out here and calm him down," laments Gary Thorne, not noticing that Leo Mazzone has already skipped over the foul line and has made his way to the mound, lecturing Cabrera quickly and firmly, waving his hands frantically trying to express that everything is still all right. Cabrera calmly retires the side four pitches later.

Bottom 2nd: A. J. Burnett gets a 1-2-3 inning, which is good to see. Both these pitchers have better stuff than location, both tonight and in general.

Top 3rd: Cabrera nails Overbay on a classic Maddux two-seamer that backs up under the batter's hands on the inside corner. Only Cabrera throws it about six mph harder than Maddux ever did. That's the Mazzone influence right there, if it turns out DC (which I now dub him to save precious typing time) can master that deadly pitch.

Bottom 3rd: Ended before I could finish typing that last inning's summary, which was meager in itself so I guess that's what we're hoping for today: 18 two-sentence entries with no time for wit. This is exactly what I wanted to see out of A.J. Burnett tonight. Thorne, dutifully: "Burnett has faced the minimum nine as we come to the end of the third inning."

Top 4th: DC's having trouble keeping the ball down, which results in Aaron Hill sitting on a 3-1 cookie and calmly driving it to the opposite gap for a double. Then he gets ahead of Adam Lind -- who is currently a pending waiver claim of mine -- and is able to blow him away with the same recklessly high fastball that Hill could afford to lay off by being ahead in the count. An unlucky infield dink puts runners on the corners with two out, but then a laser right at the second baseman ends the inning. Luck evened out quickly for DC there, which doesn't always happen in games.

Bottom 4th: Burnett's fastball control is shaky horizontally, as opposed to DC's. He gets unlucky when a topspinned chopper skips right by Overbay at first. Outrageously, they score it a hit in a blatant act of homecooking that breaks up the perfect game to boot. I mean, Overbay whiffed on the grounder and they call it a hit! How can Thorne not even mention this travesty? The death of honest official scoring in baseball is a tragedy and borderline scandalous! There, I said it. Anyway, Brian Roberts proceeds to steal second and third in rapid succession, and Melvin Mora jacks one out to left, tying the score at 2-2. Oh shit. Burnett tried to go up and in with a full count, but his heart wasn't in it and he got punished by Mora. This is not good: I want both pitcherse to do as well as possible, but one of them needs to get the win and a tie score is decidedly suboptimal. Burnett's rattled now, slinging the ball all over the place, but his stuff is so good that all he has to do is find the corners two or three times per batter to get a pair of groundouts and a soft lineout to end the inning relatively uneventfully.

Top 5th: DC still coming in at 95, at least until he freezes Rios with a nasty unhittable curveball that nicks the outside corner. That's five strikeouts for Cabrera--oops, make that six as the Maddux fastball again rings up Gregg Zaun. Promising stuff here. Overbay slaps a single to the gap, but DC overpowers Frank Thomas (looking uncomfortable as always, but more so in a Toronto uniform) with the two-seamer running in on the hands. Foul out to third, inning over.

Bottom 5th: Burnett's stuff is very similar to and every bit as nasty as Cabrera's, but has been having trouble putting the hitters away tonight, running Kevin Millar to his seventh 3-2 count of the game (says Thorne) before losing him to lead off the inning. Uh oh, here we go. That's his second walk against zero K's, another bad sign. Aaand just as I finish typing that, Jay Gibbons chases an eye-high fastball to go down swinging. The more disciplined team in general should be victorious tonight. Burnett then goes 3-0 for the first time in the game (an odd juxtaposition) to Corey Patterson and eventually walks him as well. Pitching Coach Arnsberg out to chat, departs with a soft pat on the ribcage. And next up in this clutch situation? Paul Bako. Ha! He hits a soft topper to first for the second out. Brian Roberts, with two outs and ducks on the pond, tries to charge one but can only manage straightaway centerfield. Inning over.

Top 6th: Matt Stairs with the first-pitch flyout. I've said it before and I'll say it again, that is a pitcher's best friend, particularly if the pitcher is struggling with control at times. Aaron Hill poses no challenge, Adam Lind more so until DC backs him off with a 1-2 chin-scratcher, leading to a 3-2 count. DC attempts to get yet another strikeout with the Maddux special but leaves it up and over just enough for Lind to fight it off into the deep LF gap for a double. That Lind is a good looking player and a player I'm happy to be condiditonally claiming. Even his foul balls were commandingly hit and came against some pretty tough pitches. Royce Clayton kills the inning though, with a feeble wave at a curve in the dirt. Should be seven Ks for DC, though Thorne says six.

Bottom 6th: Burnett has learned his lesson and is staying away from Mora, but again loses his advantage in the count and walks him. Starting the next batter (Markakis) with a pitchout seems like a questionable decision, no? Shit, now it's 2-0, here we go again...3-0, and then 3-1 before Markakis lashes an easy single to right, bringing up Tejada who is sitting dead red and goes down swinging on three pitches, fastball curveball curveball. Burnett's second K and a big one. Aubrey Huff hits one to the absolute deepest part of the park for out number two, unluckily for him. Kevin Millar ropes the first pitch he sees but right at the third baseman (who is Jason Smith?), and again we see how lucky a pitcher has to be to succeed while walking twice as many as he strikes out. AJ has one inning left, tops.

Top 7th: Pitcher's worst enemy? How about the four-pitch walk to lead off the inning? (I suppose a 17-pitch full-count walk would be worse for the pitcher, but you get the idea.) Alexis Rios strikes out trying to chase that same outside curveball he watched for strike three last time, only this one was impossible to reach. Gregg Zaun however fists one into LF for a single, so two on and one out for Overbay with two pitchers cranking it up in the Baltimore bullpen. DC starts Overbay off with a curve for strike one (ballsy), and the resulting advantage leaves Overbay off balance when he pops out on the next pitch. That's good pitch calling and good command paying off right there. Frank Thomas always intimidates of course, but he's 0-2 and under the Mendoza line so far on the season, so...ugh crap he's walked him. Bases loaded, two outs, and that's the end of the night for Daniel Cabrera. He's been great tonight and racked up the K's, but pulling him right now rather than allowing himself means some lefty named Parrish makes the difference between a no-decision and a loss, not to mention the difference between a positive start on the ledger for my fantasy team (Teen Girl Squad) and a borderline disaster. But also a win for Burnett in the process! This is a blunder by Baltimore, even though I understand they were trying to protect Cabrera's confidence, because Vernon Wells can now enter the game as a pinch hitter for the lefty Stairs and I would much rather have had the latter matchup. Sure enough, he rifles a shot off a diving Mora's glove into left and two go-ahead runs score. Aaron Hill grounds out to end the inning, mercifully, but Burnett is now poised to be the victor.

Bottom 7th: Burnett stays in and immediately gets some luck in the form of a diving catch by Lind along the LF line. Did I mention I'm happy to be potentially owning Adam Lind, if I become fortunate enough to do so? Corey Patterson bails Burnett out by popping up a 2-0 pitch to Hill at second base. Another full count, this one to the ever-feeble Paul Bako...and another walk. Jay-sus! Bako may be the worst hitter out there! Fortunately Brian Roberts cannot take advantage, as his frozen rope to center poses no threat to Vernon Wells.

Top 8th: And there's Shane Marcum warming up in the Toronto bullpen. Seeing as Cabrera and Burnett are no longer in the game, my rooting interest has waned and thus my recapping work here is done. Welcome to MLB fandom in the twenty-first century, bitches.

Final lines:
Burnett 7 IP, 3 H, 2 R (2 ER), 5 BB, 2 K
Cabrera 6.2 IP, 8 H, 4 R (4 ER), 2 BB, 7 K

Gotta run, Hudson's shutting out the Mets....

[Postscript: Burnett left in position to win but Jason Frasor blew the save and the game for the Blue Jays...reeling from this mediocre dual no-decision, Teen Girl Squad were annihilated by the Pimply Backs in Week 3 by a score of 11-1-0...my waiver claim of Adam Lind was successfully processed, though he hasn't cracked the starting lineup yet.]

Labels: baltimore orioles, fantasy baseball, game reports, toronto blue jays

Major League Baseball was happy to hear this week that ratings for the All-Star game were up 15% this year, the largest year-to-year increase in 24 years. This is good news for baseball. But the ratings would be so much higher, and the game so much more interesting, if the companies running commercial fantasy baseball leagues (ESPN, Yahoo!, MLB, etc.) would allow All-Star game statistics to count towards each player's season stats. Imagine the delight of David Wright owners if his home run counted; of Carlos Beltran owners if his bag were tallied. Imagine the dismay of Trevor Hoffman owners!

And why shouldn't these stats count, especially now that "It Counts"? I submit the idea as a perk for fantasy owners. In the midst of a three-day span when there are zero box scores that matter, imagine if that Tuesday night game could give you a slight edge in the standings heading into the second half. Making All-Star game stats count toward fantasy totals would bring higher ratings to the game and lend to the enjoyment of fantasy owners who watch the game. Why not?

Labels: fantasy baseball, stats