MLBeat

It appears the regular season kicked off last night, with the White Sox clubbing the Indians 10-4 in a game that featured a three-hour rain delay and nine walks by Cleveland pitchers. We're sorry we missed it, but still, we get excited just typing the words. Fortunately that drubbing was underhyped in the midst of Final Four activity and the ongoing steroids scandal. Plus Wrestlemania was yesterday, or so we heard.

Anyway, today is the real Opening Day. Thus, the First Annual MLBeat Official Season Team-by-Team Improvised Capsule Preview Extravaganza Spectacular, or FAMOSTICPES for short. Catchy, huh? We've got our MLB TV up and running at work -- should be a great summer. Here we go, in no particular order:


Chicago White Sox. If recent history tells us anything, it's that the White Sox have little chance to repeat as champions. Of course, listening to recent history -- Arizona, Anaheim, Florida, Boston, Chicago White Sox -- what's the next team in that progression, Cincinnati? There's no telling. Point is, we shouldn't listen to recent history, not so much as we should listen to the Sox's seven-deep starting rotation, plus their choice acquisition of Jim Thome. Verdict: The Sox will be in the thick of the division race again, though they may have a different adversary....

Minnesota Twins. If baseball was really 75 percent pitching, then these guys would be the easy favorites. Longtime GM Terry Ryan has plugged a few gaping holes in the lineup, so they may end up being favorites anyway. One twinge of bad news: rookie phenom Francisco's Liriano DUI arrest a week ago. The Twins faithful over at BatGirl seem eager to forgive, but anyone who's driven drunk (or rode shotgun with someone who has) knows the line between a Liriano and a Leonard Little can be pretty fine. Hopefully it's not going to come to that. Verdict: Will get locked up in one of those multi-team division/wild card races where even the loser wins and everyone's confused.

Cleveland Indians. Misguided as it may be to draw any conclusions from a single game, Fernando Cabrera's disastrous outing last night (1 IP, 6 ER) puts the bullpen at a potential disadvantage. Cabrera is supposed to be one of the glue guys, a young kid with great stuff and the closer in waiting, but relievers tend to be streaky, and if he's going bad then a lot of other things will have to go right for the Indians to avoid a summer's worth of late-inning implosions. Their lineup should still be fine, though the MLBeat jury is still out on top prospect Andy Marte because someone with his pedigree shouldn't have been traded twice by now. Verdict: A disappointing third.

Detroit Tigers. One of those teams with a bad case of false optimism. It's really pretty cruel to the fans to string them along like this. When September rolls around and they have another losing record, it will be tough to explain why people were so jacked up about Magglio Ordonez, Todd Jones (who is already on the DL) and Carlos Guillen in the first place. They'll always have the Pistons, at least. Verdict: Consistent with the mediocrity.

Kansas City Royals. Doesn't a crew this awful usually surprise us at least a little bit before fading back to the cellar for good? Maybe a Rookie of the Year or an unexpected ten-game winning streak? No, you say? Okay, I believe you. Verdict: Only relevant in that they will play against contending teams from time to time.


New York Yankees. It's easy to look at their starting pitching and predict a total collapse, but that would be underestimating the front office's extreme impatience when it comes to struggles of any kind. If the Yankees are to fail this year, it will be because the acquired replacements failed, and then the replacements for the replacements failed, and so on. Verdict: Someone will succeed in pinstripes, enough at least to make the playoffs again.

Boston Red Sox. Just like the Yankees, they've become a thoroughly detestable team in their propensity to go out and get whatever they need to fill whatever hole they have, and yes, please throw in Mike Lowell if you must, thank you very much. Their fan base is less accustomed to this state of affairs than the Yankees', which helps explain why a host of scientific studies have concluded that Red Sox fans are now neck-and-neck with Cubs fans as the most annoying in baseball. Hey, don't look at me...it's science. Verdict: Likely wild card.

Baltimore Orioles. This will be Leo Mazzone's greatest challenge yet. So many eyes are on the hallowed pitching coach in his new environs, eager to overanalyze his influence on the Orioles' impressionable young staff. In situations like these, the first two months are everything. A hot start like last year's will sustain itself longer than last year's did, but an early slump will lead to undue frustration, hot-tempered explosions on the mound and the drawing and quartering of Bruce Chen, meaning the ongoing struggle to remember which team Chen is pitching for will finally achieve gruesome closure. Verdict: Hot start, 85 wins, a failed run at the wild card and excessive optimism for next year.

Toronto Blue Jays. Quick, name the last team that bought themselves a World Series. I'll give you a minute to think about it...no, I meant besides the Yankees. That's what I meant. Point is, it doesn't happen too often. The Jays did make some improvements in the offseason, but not a hundred million dollars' worth, and none of it will be worth as much as having Roy Halladay back for a full season. Don't they know the teams they're going up against in this division anyway? Verdict: Out of the race by August.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Clearly the team of the future, with hot prospects such as Delmon Young, B.J. Upton, Rocco Baldelli, and Scott Kazmir. The brand new front office is on the hot seat in '06, as they have to clear logjams in the infield and outfield, while focusing on adding pitching and more pitching. Borderline contending teams should keep Tampa Bay on speed dial all season long. It's been said for a few years now that the Devil Rays are a couple years away; if they make the right moves this summer it'll finally be true. Verdict: Last place again, but Carl Crawford and Joey Gathright team up to steal 100 bags.


Oakland A’s. Never has a team inspired more bullheaded punditry than the A’s of Billy Beane. The anti-Oakland sentiment from basball people, particularly its old guard, has been so consistently wrongheaded over the past several years that we wonder what to make of the fact that the A’s are now considered the consensus favorite in the division, if not the entire American League. It doesn’t seem right. Something tells us Milton Bradley is going to find a way to throw a wrench into this, but we are going to try and ignore that something. By the way, has anyone properly explained how Beane was able to acquire Antonio Perez, who will be one of the better utility infielders in the game, as a throw-in alongside Bradley? That was just unfair. Verdict: West champs, and first taste of playoff success since the Canseco days.

Anaheim Angels. They're in a tight spot this year. The A's look better on paper, unless the Angels decide to rush up some of their top prospects, like Howie Kendrick, Brandon Wood, Jeff Mathis, and Dallas McPherson. If they play their cards right, they'll have a shot this year but surely be stronger in the years to come; play them wrong, and you've set back the careers fo some promising rookies by burning their confidence, Solomon Torres-style. While we're on the subject, did anybody watch K-Rod last year in the playoffs against the White Sox? He got burned in some key situations throwing nothing but slider after slider, without even a single fastball to keep the Sox honest. Either he was hiding an injury, or he'd lost confidence in his fastball. The former seems much more likely -- our arm hurts just watching the guy. Verdict: Valiant run at the wild card, but K-Rod injury too much to overcome.

Seattle Mariners. They seem to be a consensus pick for the cellar in this tough division, but we're not seeing it. They're set to improve at many positions, including catcher (Japanese emigrant Kenji Johjima), starting pitching (having King Felix Hernandez around for a full season), third base (Adrian Beltre can't be worse than last year, right?), and center (ditto for Jeremy Reed, right?). Verdict: They'll make a little noise before fading by the dog days.

Texas Rangers. They were set as an all hitting, no pitching squad...and that was before Adam Eaton went down with a torn middle finger tendon. Now they'll be all hitting and disastrous pitching. Might be tough to tell the difference. Verdict: 800+ runs scored, which is a lot for a last-place team.


Atlanta Braves. We are long past the point of evaluating the Braves on their merits, instead giving our attention to The Streak and whether it can continue. John Schuerholz et al have been threading an extraordinarily narrow needle: it has been at least five years since Atlanta’s had enough premier talent to be considered a serious postseason threat, yet winning the NL East hasn’t been a challenge for at least as long. One factor to consider in ‘06: the team is up for sale, meaning there is not likely any chance of a quick-fix payroll boost to plug any gaps at first base or the starting rotation. Still, plenty of options remain within the system to use as needed. Verdict: Make it fifteen, with the lack of other NL powerhouses providing a chance at playoff advancement.

Philadelphia Phillies. Paying millions to Tom Gordon to be the closer is one of those moves that looks doomed from the start. Ineffectiveness is a distinct possbility for any 38-year-old closer, but that fat contract dictates he'll keep getting chances even if he falters. Phillie fans have to hope for either surprisingly solid performance or an injury, nothing in between. Also, trading for Aaron Rowand is going to look pretty dumb if Jim Thome cracks forty homers again. Verdict: Puncher's chance at the wild card.

New York Mets. If it weren’t worth a lot of money to ESPN and the other major outlets to get New Yorkers excited about the Mets every spring, we probably wouldn’t have to deal with all this hype. Look, the Mets have some serious holes, including the middle infield and in the rotation. Trading Kris Benson and Jae Seo for bullpen help was shortsighted and could likely prove disastrous come June when some combination of Steve Trachsel, Pedro Martinez, and Victor Zambrano are on the DL. Still carrying Kaz Matsui around betrays a refusal to admit error that could only be called Bushian. At least they have the prospect of a new ballpark to look forward to in Toilet Meadows. Verdict: A disappointing third.

Washington Nationals. We've discussed the Soriano debacle enough, but we haven't mentioned Jim Bowden's trade of Vinny Castilla to San Diego for Brian Lawrence, who is now out with a torn rotator cuff. Can't wait to see what comes next. A John Rocker sighting, perhaps? Verdict: Will lock horns with Florida for last place, a battle the Marlins will enjoy much more.

Florida Marlins. The working assumption for a blown-up team such as the Marlins is that they’re going to lose 100 games. It may not be my place to disagree. But between Jeremy Hermida, Scott Olsen, Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez, Eric Reed, Josh Willingham, and all their rookie buddies...that’s a lot of unknown quantities. Some of them are bound to break out. Don’t act surprised when it happens. Meanwhile, owner Jeffrey Loria has made quite a case for himself as baseball’s reigning Mephistopheles (as opposed to the Beelzebud who runs the show), having run the Expos into the ground and now doing the same to a team that won a World Series for him only three seasons ago. Now he’s meeting with San Antonians about a possible move. Any potential suitors should check out the 2006 Marlins as a sneak peek at the inevitable valleys of supporting a Loria-run team. Verdict: Last place, Willingham and Olsen rise to the top of their class, Dontrelle Willis spends at least two months on the DL.


St. Louis Cardinals. Still the easy favorites in the division, despite fielding a lineup with Larry Bigbie and Juan Encarnacion starting in the outfield corners. Pretty mean, actually, to be toying with your opponents like this. It's like playing a game of Monopoly wherein you spot your opponents Park Place and Boardwalk. A cakewalk of a season for the Cards, and in a fancy new Busch Stadium to boot. Verdict: World Series champs, and another Pujols MVP.

Chicago Cubs. I’m one of those fantasy owners who can’t resist the siren song of Mark Prior. In a head-to-head league, I can overpay for him and leave him on the DL in hopes that he’ll be back in form by September, when I’ll just be getting to the playoffs. (This strategy has paid off a sum total of never, in case you were wondering.) In real life, ninety percent of the league doesn’t make the playoffs, and the Cubs can’t afford to wait around for Prior and Kerry Wood forever. It’s too bad really, because Cubs fans would probably be sooo much fun to be around if their team ever did make a Series run. Verdict: Outsiders in the wild card run, Dusty Baker begins updating his resume.

Houston Astros. Irrational thoughts overwhelm us when it comes to the Astros. Quite frankly, they deserve punishment for their performance in last year's World Series. It's one thing to be low-scoring, another entirely to be completely futile. Game Four in particular could have gone about 36 innings without even the threat of Houston crossing the plate. That wasn't baseball, people. That wasn't even soccer. Karma will repay the Astros in the form of Roger Clemens' departure, Jeff Bagwell's retirement, and another long summer of anemic offense. Verdict: Passed in the standings by the Cubs.

Pittsburgh Pirates. I'm watching right now as Oliver Perez, the Pirates' Opening Day starter, is slinging the ball all over the place against the Brewers. That's a great way to your season is DOA: your alleged ace can't even find the plate on Opening Day. They should just call it quits right here. Wait...Jack Wilson just bailed him out with an incredible play, pulling a double play out of a ball deep in the hole. Maybe there's hope after all. Such are the dangers of making preseason predictions when the preseason is over. Don't try this at home, kids. Verdict: Stretches of competence, resulting in a season-long Tango De La Muerte with the .500 mark, after which Pittsburgh will learn that it is somehow carrying the .500 mark's child. It is the mystery of the dance.

Milwaukee Brewers. The new brain trust in Milwaukee has done well for itself, with hot prospects Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, and Corey Hart all arriving at once to supplement a veteran cast including Corey Koskie, Carlos Lee, Doug Davis and Chris Capuano. Conventional wisdom has the Brew Crew taking a big step forward this year, which means the call here is going to be quite easy. Verdict: Fifth place, Ben Sheets can't stay off the DL, and Fielder does some time of his own with a pulled fat muscle.

Cincinnati Reds. Their ace is Aaron Harang, and their closer is David Weathers. Need I say more? Okay...how about, because they assumed Ken Griffey Jr.’s relatively healthy 2005 means he has completely vanquished his injury demons, they traded away fourth outfielder Wily Mo Pena to Boston, getting Bronson Arroyo in exchange because Eric Milton, their last flyball-pitcher acquisition, worked out so well. We don't see any possible way this could go wrong. Verdict: Not just last...dead stinkin’ last.


San Francisco Giants. Probably the team with the largest potential for variance in all of MLB, because Barry Bonds is the player with the highest potential for variance in all of MLB. Factor in the extreme age of Moises Alou, Omar Vizquel, Ray Durham, Steve Finley, Mike Matheny et al, and you're left with a team that nobody would want to face if the playoffs started tomorrow. But that's neither here nor there, and in the meantime there's this whole steroids thing. Maybe you've heard about it. Fortunately the ESPN series Bonds on Bonds begins running tomorrow, and that ought to clear the air of any wrongdoing whatsoever. At that point, ESPN will be the ones who owe us an explanation. Verdict: Strong chance at the World Series...if they can just make the playoffs.

Los Angeles Dodgers. This is just an odd team. The rotation features Brad Penny, Odalis Perez, Jae Wong Seo, Derek Lowe, and Brett Tomko, all of whom are as likely to have Chavez Ravine-aided strong seasons as they are to crash and burn, Kaz Ishii-style. And Nomar playing first base remains one of those things we won’t really believe until we see it in person. [Ed. note: Nomar missed the opener with a strained ribcage. Whee!] Is this really how the third act of his career is supposed to play out? This team has no significant strengths, but no glaring weaknesses either. In this weak division, that may be good enough. Verdict: No wild card, but the division race will come down to the final weekend.

San Diego Padres. Still essentially a one-man pitching staff with a doubles offense. That was good enough to take the division last year, while at the same time only being good enough for a .500 record. Unless new second baseman Josh Barfield turns out to be the second coming of Rogers Hornsby, the Fathers will not likely improve on '05, and .500 can't possibly be good enough to advance two years in a row, can it? Verdict: No, it can't.

Arizona Diamondbacks. New management team inherits a work in progress. The BoB may represent the promised land to blocked prospects Chris Young, Stephen Drew and Conor Jackson, but it's probably the Isle of Elba for the likes of Orlando Hernandez. Welcome to "Perspectives." I'm your host, Lionel Osborne. Verdict: Spotty results while the lineup shakes out, but the clear division favorite a year from now.

Colorado Rockies. Those who argue that Coors Field is too extreme an environment to field a competitive team forget the 1995 Rockies, which featured a fearsome lineup and made the playoffs before falling to the eventual champion Braves. Too bad Todd Helton does not make a fearsome lineup all by himself. Also, too bad for Dan O’Dowd that more free agent hitters don’t look at Coors in hopes of rejuvenating their careers. Shouldn’t Juan Gonzalez, Ben Grieve, or J.T. Snow have rolled through town by now? Verdict: another ugly season, but Byung-Hyun Kim impresses enough to be traded to a contender for the stretch drive, setting up another traumatic fall for our favorite submariner. Well, second favorite after Kent Tekulve.

Labels: predictions