2.17.2006
Who Let the Cat Out?
Every now and then a sportswriter not only gets something right, but also decides on a whim to make it a part of the public record. Check out this piece by Rotowire's Christopher Linn, published recently on Yahoo Sports, titled "The Fundamentals of Baseball Analysis." Not a sexy headline, you might say, certainly not as sexy as, say, "Scott Erickson Signs Minor-League Deal with Yankees," but to this particular Internet scavenger, it was straight smokin'.
Linn's timing is immaculate: we've got eight solid months of baseball ahead of us, and now three-quarters of all baseball analysis in the civilized world has now officially been rendered superfluous. It's not that any of his conclusions are remotely revolutionary, just that they are all conveniently located here in one place, as opposed to each one unraveling into a 2,000-word Jayson Stark column.
As Linn mentions in the intro, the piece was originally intended for his Rotowire team as a general primer, not unlike the literature the MLBeat crew used to compile and disseminate back in our Studlife days. (Question, however: how did someone land a job at Rotowire without knowing all this stuff in the first place?) A brief sampling from the buffet:
Linn's timing is immaculate: we've got eight solid months of baseball ahead of us, and now three-quarters of all baseball analysis in the civilized world has now officially been rendered superfluous. It's not that any of his conclusions are remotely revolutionary, just that they are all conveniently located here in one place, as opposed to each one unraveling into a 2,000-word Jayson Stark column.
As Linn mentions in the intro, the piece was originally intended for his Rotowire team as a general primer, not unlike the literature the MLBeat crew used to compile and disseminate back in our Studlife days. (Question, however: how did someone land a job at Rotowire without knowing all this stuff in the first place?) A brief sampling from the buffet:
- "Batting average is just one component of on-base percentage, and RBI is but one component of advancing oneself and others around the bases." True.
- "Essentially, that someone HAS BEEN on a tear or HAS BEEN SLUMPING doesn't make it more or less likely that they will streak or slump in the future." So true. For many people this is Statistical Fallacy Number One.
- "Triples are just doubles for fast guys. When young players have a lot of either, they often develop home run power as they get stronger physically with age." Mostly true, although triples aren't always that likely to become homers, as Deion Sanders and Cristian Guzman could probably tell you.
- "Studies have shown that for the most part BALLS IN PLAY AFFECT EVERY PITCHER THE SAME WAY. Essentially, there is a 30 percent chance that a ball in play off of anyone (whether it's Aaron Sele or Pedro Martinez) falls in for a hit." Ohhh, yes! True! So true, in fact, it's also become known as Voros' Law.
