MLBeat

Along with the merciful onset of spring training comes the inevitable wave of STOBS (an MLBeat-coined acronym for Spring Training Optimism Bull Stories). Entertaining as some STOBS can be to read, and as eagerly as baseball fans, deprived of any updates for the previous four months, devour them like starving junkies, the acronym exists for a reason. There's an unusual amount of fluff to sift through, even for sportswriting. Barry Bonds will not play in '07, unless he does. Everyone has shown up to camp in the best shape of their careers. Barry Zito is hitting 103 on the radar gun. It is hard to resist the siren song of excessive optimism, but we must try.

Except for this one, though, because faithful MLBeat readers know that Rick Ankiel is near and dear to our hearts. Regrettably the article is Insider-only, but MLBeat is bringing you the executive summary of this Ankiel-related STOBS if for no other reason than Rick Ankiel stories, not to mention Peter Gammons articles in general, should be for everyone.

• Ankiel, in his attempt to reinvent himself as a hitter, managed a .859 OPS between A and AA in 359 ABs last year. He is out of options, meaning he is likely to get a shot with the big club in '06, meaning someone at MLBeat is likely to spend a late-round pick on him in a fantasy draft to be determined.
• Alan Benes, who along with Ankiel is attempting a comeback in Cardinals camp, recovered from his umpteenth shoulder surgery to finish 2005 at AA Springfield, where he scrapped together a 5.79 ERA in fifteen relief appearances.
• According to Gammons, we mere mortals "can't fully understand" why Ankiel and Benes would keep trying to play baseball for a living, despite no longer being Cy Young contenders.
• They keep trying because they love baseball. I know, I can't fully understand it either.

Every now and then a sportswriter not only gets something right, but also decides on a whim to make it a part of the public record. Check out this piece by Rotowire's Christopher Linn, published recently on Yahoo Sports, titled "The Fundamentals of Baseball Analysis." Not a sexy headline, you might say, certainly not as sexy as, say, "Scott Erickson Signs Minor-League Deal with Yankees," but to this particular Internet scavenger, it was straight smokin'.

Linn's timing is immaculate: we've got eight solid months of baseball ahead of us, and now three-quarters of all baseball analysis in the civilized world has now officially been rendered superfluous. It's not that any of his conclusions are remotely revolutionary, just that they are all conveniently located here in one place, as opposed to each one unraveling into a 2,000-word Jayson Stark column.

As Linn mentions in the intro, the piece was originally intended for his Rotowire team as a general primer, not unlike the literature the MLBeat crew used to compile and disseminate back in our Studlife days. (Question, however: how did someone land a job at Rotowire without knowing all this stuff in the first place?) A brief sampling from the buffet:

• "Batting average is just one component of on-base percentage, and RBI is but one component of advancing oneself and others around the bases." True.
• "Essentially, that someone HAS BEEN on a tear or HAS BEEN SLUMPING doesn't make it more or less likely that they will streak or slump in the future." So true. For many people this is Statistical Fallacy Number One.
• "Triples are just doubles for fast guys. When young players have a lot of either, they often develop home run power as they get stronger physically with age." Mostly true, although triples aren't always that likely to become homers, as Deion Sanders and Cristian Guzman could probably tell you.
• "Studies have shown that for the most part BALLS IN PLAY AFFECT EVERY PITCHER THE SAME WAY. Essentially, there is a 30 percent chance that a ball in play off of anyone (whether it's Aaron Sele or Pedro Martinez) falls in for a hit." Ohhh, yes! True! So true, in fact, it's also become known as Voros' Law.

I've taken it upon myself to run a fantasy league this year, one of those cheap Yahoo jobs that I've stocked with novice managers. The idea is to reunite with some old friends, help introduce them to the labyrinthine world of fantasy baseball, and open up a can on them in the meantime. I can't imagine a better starting point for them than Linn's article. Here's hoping none of them stumbled upon it.

Finally, ballplayers are showing up in Florida and Arizona. And finally, we are starting to see answers to our many offseason curiosities.

For example, the American WBC Roster? Right here. Thirty players, fourteen pitchers...and, due to the pitch-count limits, only four starters: Roger Clemens, Jake Peavy, C. C. Sabathia and Dontrelle Willis.

-That leaves us with a bullpen of ten relievers. Let's just say that you don't want to be trailing the Americans after the fourth inning, because then it's a quick lights out with Chad Cordero, Brad Lidge, Huston Street, Joe Nathan and Billy Wagner sealing the deal.

-You would think our proud nation could produce a better starting outfield than Johnny Damon-Vernon Wells-Ken Griffey Jr., but fret not, compatriots, as they're being capably backed up by Randy Winn, Jeff "Freedom" Francoeur and Matt Holliday. (Huh? Bobby Higginson wasn't available?)

-On the other hand, the U.S. infield is a veritable melee of marquee position battles. Third base: Chipper Jones or A-Rod? Shortstop: Derek Jeter or Michael Young? Second base: Young or Chase Utley? First base: Derrek Lee or Mark Teixiera? MLBeat predicts these skirmishes will be won or lost on that ancient battleground also known as the cell phones of their respective agents. Fire 'em up!

-Seems we will be employing the Official Bobby Cox-Approved Strategy of Carrying Three Catchers for Some Reason. Michael Barrett may well get a look on the days Jason Varitek sits, while Brian Schneider should go ahead and invest in a nice and stupid deck of cards.

Ok, here's another question. Can America expect to win the world baseball classic when the Venezuelans and Dominicans are staying in prime shape whilst battling each other in the Caribbean Series?

For instance, when was the last time Dominican star Miguel Tejada hit a three run home run? Yesterday.

When was the last time Michael Young hit one? September 23, 2005.

Unfortunately, the powers that be have rigged the WBC by setting rules limiting pitch counts. Who does this help? The U.S. Who does it hurt? The Caribbean League studs who have been throwing all winter and could easily stand in tomorrow and throw 120 pitches. Too bad for them, the final round limit is 95. Why the handholding?

And one other thing. What is with this Chinese Taipei bullshit? I challenge you to look on a map and find me Chinese Taipei. As far as I know, the country's name is Taiwan.

All I can say is: George Dub better get his ass down to Florida to start a little mini camp to get Brett Myers and company back into shape. Or else Hugo Chavez is gonna kick his ass from here to...Chinese Taipei.

1. If it's true that the Mets traded Kris Benson to Baltimore to be rid of his provocative wife -- not an entirely unreasonable assumption, since Benson is way more valuable than Jorge Julio even if he remains a league-average starter -- then have they forgotten that sports is primarily supposed to be entertainment, and that few things are more entertaining than waking up in the morning and discovering the latest Anna Benson headline?

2. Can someone assign an all-access camera crew to Jeff Bagwell's upcoming spring training tryout with the Astros? It would make quite the documentary, complete with a heartrending final shot of Bagwell weeping softly as they cart him off to the glue factory.

3. Did nobody tell Tim Hudson that he would need to be ahead of his regular preseason schedule to be ready for the World Baseball Classic?

4. Since the death of substance abuse in MLB has been greatly exaggerated, as Buster Olney points out in this Insider-only piece, can we make the argument that anyone who gets a 50-game suspension next year deserves it on boneheadedness alone?

5. Um...how about that World Cup draw? Come on, I told you it was a slow week.