MLBeat

Look, I really hope we don't have another Subway Series. If one loomed, I would lobby the NYC transit union to strike and block it. But I have to accept that at this point, if the Yankees get one more decent starter, it is a possibility.

So I ask: Who wins this series?

The Yankees have a dynamite lineup, right? But don't the Mets, too? Let's say the Mets do get Manny. We know by this point in the season that the Mets can get star players whilst trading only prospects (cf. the Delgado trade). That would give them a lineup looking something like:

Reyes, SS
Beltran, CF
Ramirez, LF
Delgado, 1B
Floyd, RF
Wright, 3B
Whoever, 2B
LoDuca, C

Also starring:

J. Franco, PH
V. Diaz, 4th OF
En. Chavez, PR
X. Nady, Maybe

Then the pitching staff would be:

Martinez
Glavine
Seo
Trachsel
Benson/Zambrano

Then the bullpen has some question marks. Wagner closes, the Mets might trade Heilman for Baez (even though Heilman is awesome), but past that I don't know who half these guys are:

Heath Bell
Chad Bradford
Bartolome Fortunato
Tim Hamulack
Juan Padilla
Royce Ring
Mitch Wylie

These guys have some unbelievable names. I mean Royce, Mitch, Bartolome, Heath? Wow, but can they pitch? Answer is: Juan Padilla had a pretty good year last year, with 1.49 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 36.1 innings. But Fortunato wasn't even in the league last year and Hamulack has a career ERA of 23.14 in 2.1 innings. Mytch Wylie is a pure rookie. Chad Bradford was OK for Boston in 23.1 IP last season. Bell has a ways to go. He threw 46.2 innings last season, which is probably his best stat. He had a 5.59 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP with a not-bad 43 K's. That about does it. Even if they trade Heilman for Baez, that still leaves them short in the bullpen. Maybe they could trade an outfielder for another arm.

Nonetheless, they have decent pitching and a lot of hitting. They could make the Series.

The Yankees look like this:

Batting:

Damon, CF
Jeter, SS
Rodriguez, 3B
Sheffield, RF
Matsui, LF
Giambi, 1B
Posada, C
Williams, DH
Cano, 2B

Posada and Williams would be left out of other lineups, but as for the rest.... The bench is a little scary, as it usually is:

Miguel Cairo
Bubba Crosby
Kelly Stinnett
Melky Cabrera
Andy Phillips
Kevin Reese
Felix Escalona

The starting five will come from:

Johnson
Mussina
Pavano
Wright
Small
Wang
Chacon

The Mets probably have a better one through five. But the Yankees bullpen is fully stocked, perhaps not with the best—but each player has a role:

Sturtze: middle innings, maybe 7th inn.
Villone: middle innings, spot starts, lefty
Proctor: middle innings, mop up
Small/Chacon: middle innings
Myers: lefty
Dotel: late innings, once healthy
Farnsworth: set-up man, closer if Rivera's hamstring/groin acts up
Rivera: closer

Because the starting three are iffy past Johnson, this bullpen is going to get a lot of work. Dotel and Farnsworth are much better when not closing. If Rivera is around, this pen will hum.

It could be a high-scoring series. Because the Yanks have a better bullpen at this point, I'd take the Yanks in seven.

// posted by J Rand @ 2:04 PM