10.23.2005
From Draft Day to the Bigs, Quicker Than Before
As I am nervously enjoying the waning days of the baseball season, I am unsure what I'm going to do with myself when there aren't any scores to check. Last year's November was no problem. There was the election to watch. Although the debacled Miers nomination should remain entertaining for awhile, I'm still going to have to fire up the hot stove earlier than ever before.
Is it just me or are drafted players, especially those drafted out of college, making the majors quicker than ever before? As this 2005 season got underway the pre-eminent example was the 40th pick of the 2004 Draft, one Mr. Huston Street, from the University of Texas. Drafted 40th overall in the 2004 Draft as a so-called "sandwich pick," Mr. Street appeared in 67 games for the A's this season, first as Octavio Dotel's setup man and ultimately as the A's closer. Mr. Street put up better numbers than most closers in the league (5-1, 78.1 IP, 72 K, 23 SV, 1.72 ERA, 1.01 WHIP). If teams that drafted ahead of the A's—the White Sox for instance—knew that a legitimate MLB closer was out there for the taking, they probably would have snapped him up with a first round pick instead of letting him fall to the supplemental round. (Interestingly, neither the Red Sox nor the Braves had a pick until the second round in 2004). At any rate, Mr. Street will be a closer in the major leagues for years to come. And for the next few years, his price tag will be quite manageable: in 2005 he made $316,000. That said, he did get an $800,000 signing bonus from Oakland, but all in all, it's still not a bad deal for the Athletics. In fact, he was the lowest-paid player on their team.
Mr. Street is not the only pick from the 2004 Draft to have broken into the big league ranks this season. There's also J.P. Howell, again a four-year graduate of the University of Texas. The Kansas City Royals drafted Howell 31st overall in the 2004 Draft and dropped him right into their starting rotation about a year later. Howell didn't pitch that well for the Royals. In 15 starts he went 72.2 innings and was 3-5 with a 6.19 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. He did have one excellent outing however, when he no-hit the Twins over five innings on September 26th. Howell got a $1 million bonus when he signed with the Royals. That makes his league-minimum salary of $316,000 look a little steeper as it's averaged out over his first three years, but that's still only $649,333 per year. As a rookie right out of college, he has shown some promise, and his club was willing to give him 15 starts despite the fact that he did not make his way to the big league club via A, AA, AAA. If he wins ten games next year, he is a bargain at $650k.
Likewise Jason Vargas, the 68thpick of the 2004 Draft, who went 5-5 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in 17 games (15 starts) for the Marlins in 2005. Mr. Vargas received a $525,000 signing bonus but made onlythe league minimum despite locking up a spot in the Marlin rotation as that team contended for the Wild Card in August and September. Mr. Vargas fits the Street/Howell mold: a four-year college player, graduating from a college baseball powerhouse (Long Beach St.) and started three games for Florida's Single A Affiliate in Greensboro before being called up to pitch for the Big Club.
During the 2005 season, the Red Sox sent John Olerud to the minors. This nixed Olerud from a famed exclusive trio of players who were the only three players since the inception of the amateur draft in 1965 to have made their professional debut in the Major Leagues and completely avoid the minors thereafter. The other two are Dave Winfield and Bob Horner. But perhaps Winfield and Horner will have more and more company as major league teams rely more and more on four-year college players ripe from the most recent Amateur Draft.
Take for instance, Ryan Zimmerman of the Washington Nationals and Joey Devine of the Atlanta Braves. Mr. Zimmerman was the 4th pick of the 2005 Amateur Draft on June 7, 2005 and was promoted to the major leagues so fast (Sept. 1, 2005) he wasn't even around to accept the MVP Award his minor league club, the AA Harrisburg Senators, wished to bestow on him. I mean, is Major League baseball going to need three tiers of minor league development if this trend continues?
Look at Mr. Devine, who by this point of the season is best known for giving up the 18th inning homer to Chris Burke in Game 4 of the NLDS, which sent Houston to St. Louis and sent the Braves home for the offseason. But before Devine found himself in that situation, he was the 27th overall pick in the 2005 Amateur Draft. Msrs. Zimmerman and Devine are both 4-yr college players, Zimmerman out of the University of Virginia and Devine from North Carolina St.
Zimmerman, though, is no cheapie. He signed a deal with the Nats worth almost $3m, not including an $800k signing bonus. I am presuming that this deal spans Zimmerman's first three years, at which point he would become arbitration eligible. Averaging the signing bonus out over three years, Zimmerman makes $1.27m per year for three years. That's no league minimum but the Nats will pay him far less than they're paying Vinny Castilla, who made $3m in 2005 and will make $3.2m in 2006. Castilla hit .253 in 2005 with 12 HR, 66 RBI, and a .722 OPS. Zimmerman, in limited time, hit .397 with 6 RBI and a .922 OPS in 58 at-bats. This should have the Nats wondering who gets pinched from the left side of their infield next year: Castilla or Guzman? Zimmerman can also play short, it seems. In the 2005-06 offseason, Mr. Zimmerman will play in the Arizona Fall League.
Mr. Devine, meanwhile, got a $1.3m bonus, although it's not clear what kind of contract he's got underlying that. It might just be a minor league contract, which is worth $52k when purchased by a major league team. The Braves were perhaps in dire bullpen straits as October rolled around but nonetheless had some reason for adding Mr. Devine to their playoff roster. However, his 12.60 ERA over 5 IP in the regular season leads you to believe the Braves simply had no other options. Mr. Devine struggled in three appearances in the posteason, finishing with a 10.80 ERA over 1.2 IP.
Then there's Craig Hansen, a rare young arm on the Boston staff. The Sox took Mr. Hansen 26th overall in the 2005 Draft. He pitched three innings during the regular season, with an ERA of 6.00, 3 K's and 1 BB. He didn't make the postseason roster. But he can reach the mid- to upper-nineties and I wouldn't be surprised to see him closing games for the Red Sox next year. He was, after all, the closer at St. John's. Like the A's with Mr. Street, the Red Sox might have plucked a ready-made-closer from the college ranks. He has signed a four-year contract with the Sox that will pay him $4m over four seasons.
The speed with which these college players are making the major leagues is unprecedented. The dynamics of baseball, including its free agency market, must take note. MLB franchises can now draft MLB-ready players, most of whom have played four years in the college ranks, instead of paying larger salaries to veteran players who might or might not be effective. Major league owners are happy to let the NCAA take over player development for them. Why take a chance that Tom Gordon might be a decent closer next year when you could have drafted one in June the year before?
Is it just me or are drafted players, especially those drafted out of college, making the majors quicker than ever before? As this 2005 season got underway the pre-eminent example was the 40th pick of the 2004 Draft, one Mr. Huston Street, from the University of Texas. Drafted 40th overall in the 2004 Draft as a so-called "sandwich pick," Mr. Street appeared in 67 games for the A's this season, first as Octavio Dotel's setup man and ultimately as the A's closer. Mr. Street put up better numbers than most closers in the league (5-1, 78.1 IP, 72 K, 23 SV, 1.72 ERA, 1.01 WHIP). If teams that drafted ahead of the A's—the White Sox for instance—knew that a legitimate MLB closer was out there for the taking, they probably would have snapped him up with a first round pick instead of letting him fall to the supplemental round. (Interestingly, neither the Red Sox nor the Braves had a pick until the second round in 2004). At any rate, Mr. Street will be a closer in the major leagues for years to come. And for the next few years, his price tag will be quite manageable: in 2005 he made $316,000. That said, he did get an $800,000 signing bonus from Oakland, but all in all, it's still not a bad deal for the Athletics. In fact, he was the lowest-paid player on their team.
Mr. Street is not the only pick from the 2004 Draft to have broken into the big league ranks this season. There's also J.P. Howell, again a four-year graduate of the University of Texas. The Kansas City Royals drafted Howell 31st overall in the 2004 Draft and dropped him right into their starting rotation about a year later. Howell didn't pitch that well for the Royals. In 15 starts he went 72.2 innings and was 3-5 with a 6.19 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. He did have one excellent outing however, when he no-hit the Twins over five innings on September 26th. Howell got a $1 million bonus when he signed with the Royals. That makes his league-minimum salary of $316,000 look a little steeper as it's averaged out over his first three years, but that's still only $649,333 per year. As a rookie right out of college, he has shown some promise, and his club was willing to give him 15 starts despite the fact that he did not make his way to the big league club via A, AA, AAA. If he wins ten games next year, he is a bargain at $650k.
Likewise Jason Vargas, the 68thpick of the 2004 Draft, who went 5-5 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in 17 games (15 starts) for the Marlins in 2005. Mr. Vargas received a $525,000 signing bonus but made onlythe league minimum despite locking up a spot in the Marlin rotation as that team contended for the Wild Card in August and September. Mr. Vargas fits the Street/Howell mold: a four-year college player, graduating from a college baseball powerhouse (Long Beach St.) and started three games for Florida's Single A Affiliate in Greensboro before being called up to pitch for the Big Club.
During the 2005 season, the Red Sox sent John Olerud to the minors. This nixed Olerud from a famed exclusive trio of players who were the only three players since the inception of the amateur draft in 1965 to have made their professional debut in the Major Leagues and completely avoid the minors thereafter. The other two are Dave Winfield and Bob Horner. But perhaps Winfield and Horner will have more and more company as major league teams rely more and more on four-year college players ripe from the most recent Amateur Draft.
Take for instance, Ryan Zimmerman of the Washington Nationals and Joey Devine of the Atlanta Braves. Mr. Zimmerman was the 4th pick of the 2005 Amateur Draft on June 7, 2005 and was promoted to the major leagues so fast (Sept. 1, 2005) he wasn't even around to accept the MVP Award his minor league club, the AA Harrisburg Senators, wished to bestow on him. I mean, is Major League baseball going to need three tiers of minor league development if this trend continues?
Look at Mr. Devine, who by this point of the season is best known for giving up the 18th inning homer to Chris Burke in Game 4 of the NLDS, which sent Houston to St. Louis and sent the Braves home for the offseason. But before Devine found himself in that situation, he was the 27th overall pick in the 2005 Amateur Draft. Msrs. Zimmerman and Devine are both 4-yr college players, Zimmerman out of the University of Virginia and Devine from North Carolina St.
Zimmerman, though, is no cheapie. He signed a deal with the Nats worth almost $3m, not including an $800k signing bonus. I am presuming that this deal spans Zimmerman's first three years, at which point he would become arbitration eligible. Averaging the signing bonus out over three years, Zimmerman makes $1.27m per year for three years. That's no league minimum but the Nats will pay him far less than they're paying Vinny Castilla, who made $3m in 2005 and will make $3.2m in 2006. Castilla hit .253 in 2005 with 12 HR, 66 RBI, and a .722 OPS. Zimmerman, in limited time, hit .397 with 6 RBI and a .922 OPS in 58 at-bats. This should have the Nats wondering who gets pinched from the left side of their infield next year: Castilla or Guzman? Zimmerman can also play short, it seems. In the 2005-06 offseason, Mr. Zimmerman will play in the Arizona Fall League.
Mr. Devine, meanwhile, got a $1.3m bonus, although it's not clear what kind of contract he's got underlying that. It might just be a minor league contract, which is worth $52k when purchased by a major league team. The Braves were perhaps in dire bullpen straits as October rolled around but nonetheless had some reason for adding Mr. Devine to their playoff roster. However, his 12.60 ERA over 5 IP in the regular season leads you to believe the Braves simply had no other options. Mr. Devine struggled in three appearances in the posteason, finishing with a 10.80 ERA over 1.2 IP.
Then there's Craig Hansen, a rare young arm on the Boston staff. The Sox took Mr. Hansen 26th overall in the 2005 Draft. He pitched three innings during the regular season, with an ERA of 6.00, 3 K's and 1 BB. He didn't make the postseason roster. But he can reach the mid- to upper-nineties and I wouldn't be surprised to see him closing games for the Red Sox next year. He was, after all, the closer at St. John's. Like the A's with Mr. Street, the Red Sox might have plucked a ready-made-closer from the college ranks. He has signed a four-year contract with the Sox that will pay him $4m over four seasons.
The speed with which these college players are making the major leagues is unprecedented. The dynamics of baseball, including its free agency market, must take note. MLB franchises can now draft MLB-ready players, most of whom have played four years in the college ranks, instead of paying larger salaries to veteran players who might or might not be effective. Major league owners are happy to let the NCAA take over player development for them. Why take a chance that Tom Gordon might be a decent closer next year when you could have drafted one in June the year before?
