MLBeat

Here's a detailed version of the annual "Atlanta's sky is falling" prediction.

What Jerry Crasnick does not know is that I am one defensive mofo. Here are ten reasons why Atlanta's division-winning streak, the longest of its kind in professional sports history, will carry on in 2005:

1. Because Baseball Prospectus thinks it won't. Even though BP is accumulating a track record of being better at predictions than other organizations that are paid to do such work, they continue to miss on this one. In each of the past 15 years some reputable publication has picked the Braves to lose the division to the Phillies, Marlins, or (God forbid) the Mets. At this point BP has become the most reputable of all the predictive publications out there. It will be fun to see them humbled again.

2. Because that outfield situation isn't as bad as you think. Yes, Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi are as crappy as everyone thinks they are, and certainly won't be able to carry a team to the playoffs. On the other hand, with Ryan Langerhans, Andy Marte, Jeff Francoeur, Wilson Betemit, and an ever-ready Trader John Schuerholz waiting in the wings, incompetence will not be tolerated for too long. A good example of this surfaced last spring, when Braves fans were suffering the "performances" of Dewayne Wise in the outfield and Mark DeRosa in the infield on a regular basis and all looked lost. Solution: move Chipper Jones back to third base, send Eli Marrerro out to leftfield, and convince J.D. Drew's sorry ass to stay in the lineup long enough to earn that one good contract that would set his family for life. We'll see tinkering of this sort by May, or as soon as Mondesi decides to return to his people on Planet Crazy.

3. That bullpen. No, it doesn't look good on paper: Dan Kolb, Roman Colon, Chris Reitsma, Kevin Gryboski, Tom Martin, Jorge Sosa. But it never looks good on paper in the spring, and by August you will run through these names again and think, "Wow, that's a shut-down bullpen." I don't know how they do it either, but look at these names: Darren Holmes, Mike Bielecki, Chris Hammond, Greg McMichael, Kevin McGlinchy, Tim Spooneybarger, Kerry Ligtenberg, and Jose Cabrera. Not too impressive either, but all (and many others) were very effective relievers at one point for the Braves in recent years. This will not stop happening just because of the name-recognition factor, if history is any guide. And frankly, history is the only guide we've got.

4. Andruw Jones still has his Beltre year coming. In six months everyone will be calling a career year that coincides with a contract year a Beltre. Just you watch.

5. Because there is one name lurking just underneath all the murmurs of "potential MVP breakout seasons," and that name is The Marcus. Avid Braves fans drool over this guy in the way that you only see when avid fans have been tracking a player's progress through the minors, highlighting him as a potential star as far back as 1998, lamenting the roadblocks to his development as a player (lack of size and defense), and exulting when he finally makes it to the show despite all the detractors. In the modern era of rapid player movement and rampant free agency, this is how you show loyalty to a player: identify him and follow him well before his arbitration years. I will be a Marcus Giles fan long after he is no longer a Brave. Seeing him succeed with a tomahawk on his jersey is the single most fulfilling part of being a Braves fan for me since the championship season of 1995.

6. Because of Julio Franco. I mean, c'mon!

7. The secret to the Braves' success is not really a secret: the establishment in place of Bobby Cox, Leo Mazzone, and John Schuerholz. How they are able to do it is of course beyond me, just as it is beyond the comprehension of every baseball fan and analyst I've ever known. And because nobody knows how they do it, nobody knows how to overanalyze or imitate it. Since 1991 they've won divisions in various years with pitching, offense, bullpen, and killer deadline trades. The only consistencies I can find are their reliance on local Georgia boys as draft picks, a generally calm and professional clubhouse atmosphere, and Mazzone's program of having pitchers throw on the side between starts. That can't be all to the story, can it?

8. John Smoltz. How could I even get to the eighth reason without mentioning this guy? That right there could be another reason altogether. There are many doomsday predictions of him not even making it to 120 IP as a starter, but even if he does begin to break down he'll adhere to his past record of gutting it out and will probably regress to league-average as he does so.

9. Because the Mets are clearly doomed to repeat all their injury-prone, expensive-acquisition mistakes; because the Marlins can't survive losing even one starting pitcher or position player without taking a huge hit; because the Phillies still can't pitch or play centerfield; and because the Nationals don't even merit to be mentioned in a compound sentence with these other teams.

10. Because ten is a nicer, more round number than 9.